Numbers That Keep Me Awake

We have spent years as a church trying to draw the focus away from numbers(attendance), and rightfully so. A church (or any organization) can become skewed if it focuses only on the numbers and not on the rest of the ministry and what it does. Sometimes I begin to worry about certain numbers, not obsessed, but aware. I heard Thom Rainer once say something to the effect, “Numbers are what they are, and facts are our friends.”

There are facts and trends in the church that we cannot afford to ignore, and from time to time, we need to say (or write about) them out loud.

These are not numbers I enjoy writing about, but they are the numbers that keep me awake at night.

1. Challenge of Attendance

The following idea or thought exercise is based on a 4-week month.

Marie will represent a member/regular attender of the church and, on average, attends every week. Outside of sickness, she may miss one or two Sundays a year. Because of how she was raised and the culture she came from, this attendance pattern is her understanding of being an active member.

But what happens when Marie leaves or passes away?

As churches and leaders, we foolishly tend to think that 1 Marie = 1 (younger, not-Marie, which we will call Sara). However, this assumption is wrong. Sara believes that an active church member attends around once per month, not once per week. (Once per month is the current trend inside American churches.)

In a four week month 1 Marie = 4 Saras.

As you can see, this isn’t just a math problem; it’s a discipleship reality.
It is not one new member replacing Marie; we need to begin discipleship with four individuals to keep up with the cultural change.

As a caveat, if someone was already drifting away, COVID-19 gave them the opportunity to leave between 2020 and 2023. As of 2026 (date of this writing), we must face the reality that many did not, and will not, come back, and we need to move forward.

2. Guests Don’t Just Come Back

Please know that I am not in favor of doing things simply to attract people. However, when God sends us visitors, what steps are we taking to make the process smooth and to alleviate any fear or trepidation?

Let me share some numbers from the restaurant world (these may be the only guest metrics we can speak about in general terms). If a first-time guest has a flawless visit, the likelihood of returning is only about a 40% chance.

If we stopped there, why do we assume first-time visitors will simply return on their own?

However, let’s continue. If they do return for a second time and have a flawless visit, the likelihood of returning increases to around 42%. If the same guest returns for a third visit and it is again flawless, it finally jumps to about a 70% chance of returning.

Now, bring it back into the church world: we are often told that an average person will make ten to twelve visits or interactions before they even consider a deeper church commitment. We must add this information to the reality that many in our culture place less importance on church membership or overall involvement.

We can see why the guest process cannot be an afterthought.

These aren’t just guests; they are people God has entrusted to us, even if only for a moment.

3. The Reducing Church

The Christian Post recently stated that an estimated 15,000 churches will close in the US in 2026, about 41 churches per day. And while we are also opening churches, around 8,000-10,000 per year, the number is still staggering.

They also estimate that another 15,000 churches will be moving from a “full-time pastor” to a “bi-vocational” (a pastor with an outside full-time job). Some congregations are considering a “co-pastoral” model, meaning a pastor oversees two or more congregations.

My concern is that every one of those church closings represents a person, or in many cases, multiple people. Where are they going? Who is reaching out to them? Will they stop going because “my church” is no longer there?

These are not just a trend to observe; these are people, and it is our responsibility to respond.

4. Field Numbers

The last numbers that keep me awake are the ones right in front of us. Let me encourage you to look into your field, your immediate impact area, the city or town you are in, the county that you are in, and maybe a few surrounding counties. There are four specific numbers to search for.

1. Census/population numbers – What are the latest numbers in your area? (Look for the most recent data available, even if it’s a year or two old.)
2. Opioid overdoses – (In North Carolina, where I am writing, it is tracked as Fentanyl-Positive Deaths. The state even provides a PDF by county. Your area may have something similar.) You may also consider searching for the number of other issues, such as suicides, DUIs, the number of children in social services, etc.
3. Homeless – When searching for these numbers, you can often find counts of adult homeless and homeless students. These numbers typically do not include Child Protective Services or foster care.
4. Lost – Lastly, it is estimated that about 30% of the population has not heard the gospel. Maybe they have heard about church, Jesus, sin, or even hatred, but not the gospel (the good news of Jesus Christ that saves them from their sins). Take the population in your area and multiply it by 30%. That is an estimate of the number of people lost in your immediate area.

These are numbers in your field. What are you doing? These are not distant problems; this is the mission field God has already given us.

So, why does it feel, when I see these numbers, that “opening the doors” or “ringing the church bell” is no longer enough?

A Final Note from Pastor Mark

So what is our excuse?

What are we going to offer when we finally put this data in front of our eyes? Ignore it? Turn the other way? Hope people show up? Hope they stay?

We are not called to control the results, but we are called to be faithful with what is in front of us.

When we stand in front of our Lord, and He asks us what we did with the people He placed around us, what will be our answer?